WTIO31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.7N 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.1N 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0N 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY USING A 121713Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE TO IDENTIFY WEAK BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED JUST BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT THE DECAYING CONVECTION. TC 05A REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS ALLOWED FOR COOL UPWELLING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING THE CYCLONE HAS EXPERIENCED. TC 05A IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND HAS ACCELERATED BY 4 KTS IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BEGIN TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48. ONCE OVER LAND, TC 05A SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TO 30 KTS BY TAU 72. WARMER SST NEAR THE COAST AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 05A TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// NNNN