WTIO31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.0N 50.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.4N 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.5N 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO A RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 122218Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS WEAK BANDING NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 40 KNOT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT WARMS TO 29-30 CELSIUS ALONG THE COAST OF YEMEN. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL, NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 36. DURING THAT PERIOD, WARM COASTAL WATERS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 05A TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS AND THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 30 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL TRACKS BEGIN TO SPREAD DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND FAIR CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// NNNN