WTIO31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 53.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH, ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN. A 131755Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WAS USED TO IDENTIFY THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. LOW (05- 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// NNNN