WTIO32 PGTW 090900 RRC

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   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 21.3N 86.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS

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   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

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   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 22.8N 88.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

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REMARKS:

090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 86.5E.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHEAST

OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A

SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED, BUT VERY EXPANSIVE

RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION

IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T2.5/25KTS.

THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING

ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AND BY TAU 48 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA

NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE