WTIO32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 86.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 86.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.1N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.3N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.6N 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.6N 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.8N 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 86.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED, BUT VERY EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A FAINT BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 090943Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T2.5/35KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR RECEDES. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN AFTER LANDFALL WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES// NNNN