WTIO32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 86.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 86.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.3N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.6N 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.5N 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.7N 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.3N 87.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 86.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING A 091556Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS FALLS BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND T4.0 (65 KTS). THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN AN REGION WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). TC 06A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIA AROUND TAU 36 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS, RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD, AND DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN