WTIO32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 85.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 85.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.5N 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.4N 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.8N 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 85.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW STILL VISIBLE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND PREVIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 CELSIUS, ALTHOUGH TC 06B WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER WATER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, AROUND TAU 6. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS TC 06B ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AS TC 06B APPROACHES LAND IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER LANDFALL, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN