WTPZ42 KNHC 150852 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018

400 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED

SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST OVER THE

WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CENTER

IS SLIGHTLY MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE

COLD CLOUD TOPS, BUT EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESTRICT

CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  A COUPLE OF

ASCAT PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF

THE CYCLONE AND BOTH INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO THE

WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE

T2.5 (35 KT) FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB, AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN

ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL

STORM. THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

HURRICANE SEASON.



RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT TARA HAS NOT

MOVED MUCH, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY FOR

THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN

AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS

BECOME MUCH MORE DIVERGENT THIS CYCLE.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS

HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD AND NOW BRING TARA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE OTHER HAND, THE

ECMWF TAKES TARA SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD IN THE

SHORT-TERM, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT