WTPZ42 KNHC 151432 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018

1000 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018



TARA REMAINS A SMALL, SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION

CONTINUING TO GO THROUGH BURSTING PHASES NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

EXTREMELY COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF -90C TO -95C HAVE BEEN

OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,

AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS GRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING

SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB, AND THE MOST RECENT

OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS T3.1/47 KT. BASED ON THESE

DATA, THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 40 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/01 KT. TARA IS

EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SMALL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN

WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE TARA INLAND

JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, IN 36-48 HOURS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF,

GFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE CENTER

OFFSHORE. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS

MODELS TVCE, HCCA, AND FSSE, KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO

SIGNIFICANT STEERING MECHANISM TO FORCE THE CIRCULATION ONSHORE FOR

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

TARA IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO, FORCING

THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER

FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER, DUE TO CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD IN THE