WTPZ43 KNHC 191457 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018

1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018



TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED LATE YESTERDAY WITHIN A

SPRAWLING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL

AMERICA WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS SOUTH OF MEXICO.

THE EASTERNMOST LOW SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS SMALL AND HAS SPUN UP

QUICKLY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF

CIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE DATA, FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES, AND

VALUABLE RADAR DATA FROM GUATEMALA ALSO SHOW A TIGHT CORE AND

INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 30 KT,

SLIGHTLY ABOVE LAST EVENING'S ASCAT PASS AND A T1.5 DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S WELL-DEVELOPED

STRUCTURE.



THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)

AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT

FURTHER STRENGTHENING, AND THE DEPRESSION'S SMALL SIZE MAY ALLOW FOR

INTENSIFICATION HIGHER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY

MODELS.  FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR

THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEVELS OFF THE MAXIMUM

WINDS IN 3-5 DAYS WHEN THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.



SINCE THE LOW FORMED RECENTLY, THE DEPRESSION'S CURRENT MOTION IS

UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT IT HASN'T MOVED

MUCH SINCE LAST EVENING, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/2 KT.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING

ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE

CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO.  AFTER DAY 3,