WTPZ44 KNHC 212034 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

300 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018



WILLA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EYE BECOMING

VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED AROUND MID-DAY BUT HAVE

COOLED SINCE THAT TIME AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

WERE 102 AND 90 KT, FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z.  WITH

THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE ESTIMATES OR 100 KT.



WILLA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/5 KT.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OVER THE

PAST FEW ADVISORIES.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD

TONIGHT OR MONDAY AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-

NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW

QUICKLY WILLA WILL RECURVE, BUT THERE IS LITTLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD

IN THE GUIDANCE.  THIS INCREASES THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC

TRACK FORECAST, WHICH CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG

THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.



THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF WILLA IS EXPECTED

TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12

TO 24 HOURS, AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND