WTPZ44 KNHC 221447 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

900 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018



WILLA IS AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  THE SMALL, BUT VERY DISTINCT, EYE

IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD

TOPS OF -70 TO -80 DEGREES CELSIUS.  A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE

OVERPASS IS THE FIRST TO INDICATE THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED,

SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED.  THE

LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T7.0/140 KT, AND

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 140 KT

AND 127 KT, RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY

HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO WILMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER

ASSESSMENT OF THE STORM'S INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.



WILLA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 130W

LONGITUDE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA

CALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE

CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF

MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL

SCENARIO BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE