WTPZ44 KNHC 222039 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

300 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018



WILLA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY, HOWEVER THE SMALL EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED THIS

AFTERNOON AND AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAD BEGUN.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE

DATA T-NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING, AND THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO

WILLA AROUND MIDDAY WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN ONE OF THE OUTER RAIN

BANDS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE DUE TO SAFETY ISSUES REGARDING

SOME OF THE ONBOARD EQUIPMENT.



THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING DUE NORTHWARD TODAY AT ABOUT 7 KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY AS WILLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF

A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TURN

WILLA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEST-CENTRAL

COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MAKE

LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BETWEEN SAN BLAS AND

MAZATLAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL

DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, AND THE NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE

VARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED.



THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT WILLA HAS GONE THROUGH SINCE

ITS FORMATION ON SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED NOW THAT AN EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT HAS BEGUN.  ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN