WTPZ44 KNHC 230234 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

900 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018



WILLA'S EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY, BUT AN

SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0049 UTC SHOWED A REMNANT INNER EYE ALONG THE

NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL THAT HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER

THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 125 KT

BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM

TAFB. GIVEN THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS WELL UNDERWAY AND

THAT MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOW AFFECTING THE HURRICANE IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST

THROUGH LANDFALL, AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 24

HOURS IS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. DESPITE THE

FORECAST DECREASE IN THE PEAK WINDS, WILLA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A

DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL, AND WILL BRING LIFE-

THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL HAZARDS TO LAS ISLAS

MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON

TUESDAY. AFTER MOVING INLAND, WILLA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, WITH

DISSIPATION FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF WILLA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD

NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS WHERE A

SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWARD, OR 360/08. THE TRACK

FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED, AS WILLA IS EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT IS STEERED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE

CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE

NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY