WTPZ44 KNHC 230838 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

300 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018



WILLA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY

DEGRADE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW

BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER-CORE RING OF DEEP

CONVECTION. HOWEVER, DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE MOAT REGION BETWEEN THE

LARGER OUTER EYEWALL AND THE SMALLER INNER CORE HAVE THUS FAR

PREVENTED THE REFORMATION OF AN INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY

IS SET AT 115 KT, BASED ON A AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE T- AND

CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND A UW-CIMSS ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF

T6.0/115 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER HURRICANE WILLA LATER THIS MORNING,

PROVIDING MORE DETAILED INTENSITY INFORMATION.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWARD, BUT AT A SLOWER

FORWARD SPEED, OR 360/04 KT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE

PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. WILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, AND THEN RECURVE

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED

BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WITH

THAT MOTION CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEW NHC

TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE FSSE AND GFS MODEL TRACKS.



THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE AROUND 0100Z TO PROVIDE

INFORMATION ON THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). HOWEVER,