WTPZ44 KNHC 231503 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018

900 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018



WILLA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A SMALL INNER CORE AND

AND AN OUTER EYEWALL.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATE THAT

CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE PRESENT.  THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST

COMPLETED ITS FIRST PASS INTO THE CENTER AND FOUND PEAK 700-MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT, AND SFMR WINDS OF 99 KT. THE PLANE

REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB, WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN

PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY AIRCRAFT DATA AND A

BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  THE PLANE SHOULD PROVIDE A

MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF WILLA'S INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES ITS

MISSION DURING THE NEW FEW HOURS.



WILLA IS MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/5 KT.  A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

THIS MORNING, AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY

TONIGHT.  THE CORE OF WILLA WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLA MARIAS WITHIN

THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST

OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,

AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.



ALTHOUGH WILLA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF DEEP WARM WATER, INCREASING

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE