ABIO10 PGTW 141200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/141200Z-141800ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 
53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 92S AS AN EXPOSED 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH 
AND SOUTHEAST. A 140954Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (25-30 KTS) REFERENCED FROM A 140602Z 
ASCAT-C IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, 28-29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 92S SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT DRIFTS 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 
53.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST OF 
ALDABRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 140954Z 
AMSRZ 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD, AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
	(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 9OS) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97,2E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
100731Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS 
STARTING TO BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP 
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL 
REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP 
NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF 
B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
	(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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