WTIO30 FMEE 180650



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20142015

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/18 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 70.0 E

(TEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

120H: 2014/11/23 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0, CI=3.5

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A

WARMER AND SMALLER CDO.

THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE WITH A GOOD ACCURACY.



DVORAK ESTIMATES DEPICT SOME SPREAD AND RANGE FROM 3.5 (50 KT - 10

MIN WINDS - PGTW AND FMEE) TO 4.5 (70 KT - 10 MIN WINDS - SAB) ... ON

THE OTHER HAND (OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES), SATCON AT 2106Z IS AT 57 KT (10

MIN WINDS). A BLEND OF THIS ESTIMATES GIVES A VMAX AT 55 KT (STRONGER

THAN THE FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE) IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING

IMPROVEMENT SEEN ON MW IMAGERY (RE-BULDING OF THE INNER-CORE SEEN ON

THE 2219Z SSMI). CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF 2219Z

MW FIX.



ADJALI IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE

NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO THE UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A LESS THAN 10KT, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR

(CIMSS) AND GOOD UPPER POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE TODAY BEFORE THE INCREASING

OF THE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR TONIGHT. THIS FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS A

TOUGH ONE AND THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED ACCORDING TO

THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.



IN THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE DECREASING STEERING

FLOW, ADJALI SHOULD SLOW DOWN TOWARDS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. COOLER SST, DRY AIR WITHIN MID

TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS, AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND A

WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.



FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH

PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE IS NOW A FAIRLY GOOD

CONSENSUS AT LONG RANGE TO BRING THE REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE

MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=