WTIO30 FMEE 190035



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/1/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/19 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 70.5 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2014/11/20 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2014/11/20 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

48H: 2014/11/21 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2014/11/21 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

72H: 2014/11/22 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/23 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0-, CI=3.5-



FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS, INFRA-RED CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

DEGRADED STRUCTURE AND A CIRRUS ARC NORTHWARD THAT CONFIRMS THE

STRENGTHENING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WIND-SHEAR (1800Z CIMSS DATA, 330

DG/ 11 KT). DT IS BASED ON MET. 1642Z ASCAT METOP-B SWATH CONFIRMS

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SINCE THE END OF DAY YESTERDAY. THE

POSITION OF THE LLCC IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE. THE FIX HAS BEEN

EXTRAPOLATED THANKS TO 1737Z TRMM AND 2204Z F15 MW .



ADJALI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF

THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. FOR THE NEXT HOURS, WITH THE

DECREASING STEERING FLOW, ADJALI SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENOUGH ON A

SOUTHWARD TRACK. DURING THE DAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEND

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL

LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.



ON THIS TRACK, ADJALI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUFFER A

NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IN VIEW OF ITS SMALL SIZE

AND DEGRADATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SST AT 26/27 DEGREES, DRY

AIR WITHIN MID-LAYERS AND WEAKENING DIVERGENCE), ADJALI IS EXPECTED

TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.



FROM THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS

HIGH PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO

TRANSIT NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=