WTIO30 FMEE 170022



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (BANSI)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 67.9 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN

DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 460 SE: 650 SW: 650 NW: 370

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 95.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW

120H: 2015/01/22 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT

LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=4.5- AND CI=5.0



THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED ONCE MORE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH

AN ALONGATED EYE. 2147Z MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED EYE-WALL

NORTHWESTWARD.  BANSI HAS TRACKED REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A

SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.



DURING THE NEXT HOURS BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING

EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD. WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE

SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS

CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP

WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME

A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM

MONDAY OR TUESDAY.



UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP.=