WTIO30 FMEE 010019



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 76.0 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX

DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 2.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :59 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 410

34 KT NE: 250 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 350

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 180 NW: 200

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 90.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/03 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 95.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/02/03 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 99.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5+

WESTERLY THEN WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ALOFT BUT IN RELATIONSHIP WITH RAPID EUNICE

MOTION GLOBALLY ORIENTED EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS, THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD REMAINS RATHER SLOW.

ON MONDAY, EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO LOST ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS AND TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD

S IN THE WAKE OF EX-DIAMONDRA CIRCULATION.

ECMWF NWP PURPOSES AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH THE RESIDUAL EUNICE

CIRCULATION MERGING IN THE EX-DIAMONDRA ONE FROM TUESDAY LATE.=