WTIO30 FMEE 010649 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20142015 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/01 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 78.1 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 330 SE: 300 SW: 410 NW: 330 34 KT NE: 200 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 170 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 87.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 92.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/02/03 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 97.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=4.5+ EUNICE SHOW AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY BUT MW IMAGERY (AMSU-B METOPB OF 0411Z) REVEAL THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS COLLAPSING WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECT OF LOW OCEANINC HEAT CONTAIN AND SOME SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL DVORAK REPORTING AGENCIES. WINDS RADII HAVE BEEN RE-ASSESSED ACCORDING RAPIDSCAT PASS OF 0205Z. ON MONDAY, EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO LOST ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD S IN THE WAKE OF EX-DIAMONDRA CIRCULATION. ECMWF NWP PURPOSES AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH THE RESIDUAL EUNICE CIRCULATION MERGING IN THE EX-DIAMONDRA ONE FROM TUESDAY LATE.=