WTIO30 FMEE 011231



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 80.1 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL ONE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST 20 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 410 SE: 260 SW: 410 NW: 330

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 200

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 170 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 90.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/03 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 96.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, DISSIPATING









2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=4.0- AND CI=4.5-



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EUNICE (STILL AT EMBEDDED CENTER) IS LOOKING

MORE RAGGED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SSMI PASS AT 0933Z WAS HELPFUL

TO RELOCATE FURTHER NORTH THE CENTER COMPARED TO THE 06Z ESTIMATE.

UNDER THE EFFECT OF A NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT (CF CIMSS ANALYSIS AT

06Z), THE CENTER IS GRADUALLY NEARING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

CONVECTIVE MASS AS SEEN ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY. IF A CI AT 4.5- SHOULD

LEAD TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 65 KT, THE VMAX IS HOLD AT 70 KT DUE

TO THE VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED (KNOWN LOW BIAS FOR THE DVORAK

TECHNIQUE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING TC). SATCON AT 0923Z IS AT 70

KT (10 MIN WINDS) WITH A MSLP AT 966 HPA. AMSU ESTIMATE OF THE GOOD

N19 PASS IS AT 80 KT (10 MIN WINDS).



TOMORROW, EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO LOST ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS AND TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD

S BEFORE MERGING TUESDAY WITHIN THE BROAD EXTRA-TROP CIRCULATION OF

EX-DIAMONDRA.=