WTIO30 FMEE 011805



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 82.4 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO

DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST 21 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 1500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 87.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 93.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/03 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 98.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, DISSIPATING









2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.5 AND CI=4.0+



SSMI PASS AT 1440Z WAS HELPFUL TO CONFIM THE SHEAR PATTERN, UNDER THE

EFFECT OF A NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT (CF CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 12Z), THE

CENTER IS GRADUALLY NEARING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS

AS SEEN ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY.

IF A CI AT 4.0+ SHOULD LEAD TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 60 KT, THE

VMAX IS HOLD AT 65 KT DUE TO THE VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED (KNOWN LOW

BIAS FOR THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING TC).



TOMORROW, EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO LOST ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS AND TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD

S BEFORE MERGING TUESDAY WITHIN THE BROAD EXTRA-TROP CIRCULATION OF

EX-DIAMONDRA.=