WTIO30 FMEE 281250



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 64.8 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 250 SW: 200 NW: 200

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/29 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/29 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2015/01/31 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T AND CI=4.5+



EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND NOW AN EYE IS CLEARLY

VISIBLE ON THE LAST SATELLITE PICTURES SINCE 0700Z. THE MEAN OF

DVORAK ANALYSIS ON 6 HOURS IS 5.0- BUT THE DVORAK CONSTRAINT REQUIRE

A DT AT 4.5+. ALTHOUGH 1046Z MW PICTURE ON 85 GHZ SHOWS AN IRREGULAR

EYE.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD OR SOUTH-EASTWARD

UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVOURABLE AND EUNICE SHOULD

RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UP TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN THE

UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE RIDGE, THE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR SHOULD KEEP

WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY AND A SECOND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TOWARDS THE

EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND TO ADD TO THE ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD

ONE, THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD

AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING

WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY

WEAKENING.=