WTIO30 FMEE 290023



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 65.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 0

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 250 SW: 200 NW: 200

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/29 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2015/01/31 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2015/02/03 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T AND CI=5.0-



THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS SLOWED DOWN.

THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSE ON THE LAST MW DATA OF 2027Z, THE EYE HAS

DISAPPEARED TEMPORARY, OR IS VERY COLD ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY.HOWEVER

A LARGER AND COLDER CDO, MORE SYMETRIC, ARE SIGNS  OF A SOON

INTENSIFICATION.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY

MORNING. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVOURABLE AND EUNICE SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UP

TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE

RIDGE, THE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY AND THE

ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO

THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD

AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING

WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY

WEAKENING.

MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ACCELERATE THE

WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=