WTIO30 FMEE 291918



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20142015

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 67.3 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 915 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SW: 340 NW: 340

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 270

48 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2015/02/03 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=7.0-



DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND

SHOW NOW AN IMPRESSIVE EYE PATTERN WITH A 20 NM DIAMETER FAIRLY PURE

EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMOOTH CDO. AT 18Z, RAW DT AVERAGED OVER 3HR IS

AT 6.9 AND IS CHOSEN AS FT. OTHER DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AT 6.5 (110-115

KT 10 MIN WINDS) AND 7.0 (120-125 KT 10 MIN WINDS). ADT SEEMS TO BE

BIASED TOWARDS LOWER VALUES DUE TO A POOR CENTER POSITION THIS

AFTERNOON ... BUT DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS RAW DT RANGE FROM 6.8

TO 7.0.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UP TO SATURDAY

MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO BECOME

LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD

POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD REMAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE SHEAR IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT (SEEN ON 06Z OUTPUTS FROM THE EC

MODEL).



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND A DEEP HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE

PLACE SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINU TO

DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER

RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER) AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT

CONTAIN SOUTH OF 20S.=