WTIO30 FMEE 300111



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20142015

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 67.6 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN

DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/7.0/D 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 915 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 430 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 330

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 260

48 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 160

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/31 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/03 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 90.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/02/04 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 98.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T= 6.5+ CI=7.0-



SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS SLIGHTLY

DETERIORATED WITH, AMONG SOME SMALL THINGS, A COOLER EYE. THE 3H

AVERAGE RAW DT FALLS DOWN TO 6.4 NEAR 21Z (USE OF FY2E DATA TO

COMPENSATE THE "LOSS" OF MET7 DURING THE ECLIPSE). SINCE 2330Z, THE

RAW DT IS UP AGAIN AT 7.0. FT REMAINS BASED ON THE 3H AVERAGE DT THAT

IS AT 6.7 AT 00Z. MEANWHILE, THE RMW (ESTIMATED ON IR IMAGERY) GROW

UP A LITTLE BIT. THE MW PATTERN (GPM OF 2311Z) REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND

DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT EN ERC IS ABOUT TO BEGIN.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UP TO SATURDAY

MORNING.  ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED

TO BECOME LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A

GOOD POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD REMAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH A

STILL POSSIBLE INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AT 125

KT VERY CLOSE OR AT THE MPI LEVEL. TONIGHT, THE SHEAR IS STILL

EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF THE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOWS.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND A DEEP HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE

PLACE SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

THE STRONGEST SPREAD AMONGST THE NWP GUIDANCE COME FROM THE

DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THAT TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES

CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS CONSENSUS.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE WITH

THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER)

AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF

20S.=