WTIO30 FMEE 300621



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20142015

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 68.0 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/18 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 900 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 330

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 260

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 160

64 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 100



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=130 KT, VERY

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/03 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 95.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/02/04 06 UTC: 36.3 S / 103.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=7.0+ CI=7.0+



EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN LAST NIGHT. AT 0300Z, METEOSAT7

IMAGERY HAS TEMPORARILY SHOWMN A DT REACHING 7.5.

THIS MENTIONED CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT AT FT=7.0+ IS A 6H

AVERAGE.

THE MW PATTERN (SSMIS OF 0232Z) REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND DOES NOT

SUGGEST THAT AN ERC IS ABOUT TO BEGIN.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARDS UP TO

SATURDAY MORNING.  TODAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS

FORECASTED TO BECOME LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD KEEP ITS

INTENSITY. TONIGHT, THE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THAT

SHOULD BE THE END OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND A DEEP HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE

PLACE SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

THE STRONGEST SPREAD AMONGST THE NWP GUIDANCE COME FROM THE

DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THAT TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES

CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS CONSENSUS.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE WITH

THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER)

AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF

20S.=