WTIO30 FMEE 301856



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20142015

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 69.0 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/7.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 905 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 410 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 370

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 240

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 90.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/03 18 UTC: 37.9 S / 98.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/02/04 18 UTC: 47.1 S / 106.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=6.5 CI=7.0



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED

AGAIN. THE 6H AVERAGE DT IS AT 6.5.



FOR THE NEXT NIGHT, THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD

PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND EUNICE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING

TREND WHILE TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING

INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND A DEEP MID/HIGH LEVELS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE

SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS. THE

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE WITH

THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER)

AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN NEAR 20S.



FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAM.=