WTIO30 FMEE 311208



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20142015

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 72.5 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST 13 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 200

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 170

64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/02/03 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/02/03 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 99.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/04 12 UTC: 45.8 S / 107.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=5.0 CI=5.5+



THE LAST MW DATA OF 0949Z, SHOW AN EYEWALL CYCLE GOING ON, IT RAMIS

ONLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE INNER WALL. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND

S GOING TO MOVE TO 40NM, AN DTHE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE AGAIN.

THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE OVER

THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, AND EUNICE IS LIKELY TO GOING ON ITS

WEAKENING TREND.

T LAST NIGHT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED MORE EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER

THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND A DEEP MID/HIGH LEVELS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE

SOUTH OF EUNICE AND SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS. THE

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THAT TIME WITHIN A FAST

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE WITH

THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR (LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR HOWEVER)

AND ALSO (MAINLY) SOME VERY LOW OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN NEAR 20S.



FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAM.=