WTIO30 FMEE 311853 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20142015 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 2.A POSITION 2015/01/31 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.1 E (TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 410 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 350 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 190 NW: 240 64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 130 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 92.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/02/03 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 97.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=5.5- THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS DIFFICULTIES TO COMPLETE AND EUNICE ENHANCED INFRARED PATTERN HAS CLEARLY DEGRADED. SINCE 1430Z THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. WESTERLY THEN WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ALOFT BUT IN RELATIONSHIP WITH RAPID EUNICE MOTION GLOBALLY ORIENTED EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD REMAINS RATHER SLOW. ON MONDAY, EUNICE IS EXPECTED TO LOST ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD S IN THE WAKE OF EX-DIAMONDRA CIRCULATION. 06Z ECMWF NWP PURPOSES AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH THE RESIDUAL EUNICE CIRCULATION MERGING IN THE EX-DIAMONDRA ONE FROM TUESDAY.=