WTIO30 FMEE 061842



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 42.8 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/07 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/07 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/10 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/02/11 18 UTC: 38.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=3.0-



EVEN IF CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERALL

ORGANISATION STILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH SOME AN INCREASE IN THE

BANDING FEATURES AND VORTICITY SEEN ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY AS MW

PRESENTATION IN 37 GHZ IS GRADUALLY BETTER DEFINED. CURRENT INTENSITY

ASSESSMENT IS STILL ON THE HIGH TOP OF ALL REPORTING AGENCIES (HIGH

SPREAD WITH 10 MIN VMAX WINDS FROM DVORAK RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KT).



MOROMBE REPORTED A MIN PRESSURE AT 994.3 HPA (CORRECTED FROM THE

BAROMETRIC TIDE) AT 14Z WITH 10 MIN WINDS AT 33 KT FROM THE NNE AS

THE CENTER WAS LOCATED AROUND 50 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN

ESTIMATED RMW AT 35 NM BY THAT TIME. SINCE THAT TIME, THE PRESSURE

HAS RISED SIGNIFICANTLY (999.8 HPA AT 18Z BUT WITHOUT BAROMETRIC TIDE

CORRECTION) AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AT AROUND 30 KT.



FUNDI I SMOVING FASTER THAN EXTECTED AND THE CURRENT TRACK IS

ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.



THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 30AOC SST. UP TO 25S, THE OCEAN

HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.



ENVIRONMENTAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR

INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY BUT THE VICINITY OF LAND MAY LIMIT THE

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



FUNDI BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN

PART OF MADAGASCAR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AND SPREAD SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TULEAR / CAP

SAINTE-MARIE AREA.=