WTIO30 FMEE 070644 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/07 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 42.9 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70 34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/07 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 34.0 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 38.6 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 120H: 2015/02/12 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, DISSIPATING 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ CI=2.5+ 0417Z F18 MICROWAVE SWATH SHOWS A TILD EXISTING BETWEEN LLCC AND MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. WITHIN THE SAME TIME, HUMID MONSOON INFLOW IS NOW LIMITED BY A TERRESTRIAL PATH AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIR IS ADVECTED BY THE WEST (REFER TO METEOSAT7 IRWV) AT 0600Z METEOSAT7 VISIBLE IMAGERY, VORTEX IS PARTIALLY EXPEOSED AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY REJECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY KEEPS HOWEVER VERY ACTIVE FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR IN THE CONVERGENCE AREA BETWEEN MONSOON FLOW AND FUNSI CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS. UP TO 26S, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD ENOUGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY UP TO 30S. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX ENOUGH AS IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ... FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND, OVER COOLER SST AND AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. UP TO MONDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SAME TRACK OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TOWARDS A WEAKNESS LOCATED NEAR 45E. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE GRADUALLY MAINLY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS IS REMOVED AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY WESTWARDS. TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A NEW POLEWARDS TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. FUNDI BRINGS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALLS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UP TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT SPREADS SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TULEAR / CAP SAINTE-MARIE AREA.=