WTIO30 FMEE 071241 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/07 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 43.0 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/08 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/08 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/02/09 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/02/10 00 UTC: 33.7 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/02/11 12 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING 120H: 2015/02/12 12 UTC: 41.9 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 CI=2.5+ DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED NEAR THE CENTRE BUT ONLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTOR. FUNDI IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING AGAINST A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CONFIRMED BY CIMSS DATA) AND THE NORTHERLY MOIST INFLOW REMAINS CONSTRAINED BY THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR LANDMASS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS. DOWN TO 26S, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD ENOUGH, AND IT WILL DROP REGULARLY THEREAFTER UNTIL REACHING 30S. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ... FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND, SINCE EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST AND AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. UNTIL MONDAY MORNING,THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SAME TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARDS A WEAKNESS LOCATED NEAR 45E. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE GRADUALLY ITS MOTION, MAINLY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD WITHDRAW AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY WESTWARDS. TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A NEW POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. FUNDI BRINGS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS AFFECTING ESSENTIALLY THE TULEAR / CAPE SAINTE-MARIE AREA.=