WTIO30 FMEE 071816



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 43.5 E

(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE

DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 35.0 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/02/10 18 UTC: 37.2 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/11 18 UTC: 41.0 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=2.5 CI=2.5+



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY

STRENGTHENED IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING

AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MICRO-WAVE PICTURES SSMIS AT

1648Z SHOW THE LLCC SLIGHTLY SHIFTED WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.



THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS. DOWN TO 26S,

THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD ENOUGH, AND IT WILL DROP REGULARLY

THEREAFTER UNTIL REACHING 30S.

THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO RELAX SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12

HOURS, AND THEN TO INCREASE AGAIN WHILE IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO

NORTHERLY ...

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND, SINCE EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST AND AN

INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.



UNTIL SUNDAY,THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SAME TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARDS A WEAKNESS LOCATED

NEAR 45E. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE GRADUALLY ITS MOTION, MAINLY ON

SUNDAY.

MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD WITHDRAW AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY

WESTWARDS.

TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A NEW

POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI IS

EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.



FUNDI CONTINUES BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TWO-THIRDS

SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WEAK

OF THE SYSTEM.=