WTIO30 FMEE 080017



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 43.6 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/08 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/09 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/10 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/02/11 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/12 00 UTC: 41.0 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=2.5+ CI=2.5+



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED IN

THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AWAY FROM THE

COAST OF MADAGASCAR.



THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER MARGINAL SST.

THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO RELAX SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 06/12

HOURS, AND THEN TO INCREASE AGAIN WHILE IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO

NORTHERLY ...

FROM TONIGHT AND BEYOND, SINCE EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST AND AN

INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.



TODAY,THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE

GRADUALLY ITS MOTION.

MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD WITHDRAW AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY

WESTWARDS.

TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A

NEW POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI

IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.=