WTIO30 FMEE 080623



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 44.1 E

(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR

DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 11 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 35.4 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/02/10 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=2.5+ CI=2.5+



ON THE LAST MW DATA 0406Z, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS

STRENGTHENED DUTING THE NIGHT SEEMS TO BE OFFSET SOUTHWARDS OF LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION.



SINCE EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST AND AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,

FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAYS.



TODAY,THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE

GRADUALLY ITS MOTION.

THE NOTRH-WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO RELAX SLIGHTLY

DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS (DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM), AND THEN TO

INCREASE AGAIN.



MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD WITHDRAW AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY

WESTWARDS.

TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A

NEW POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI

IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.=