WTIO30 FMEE 081218



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 44.1 E

(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR

DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 12 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/09 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/10 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/02/11 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/02/11 12 UTC: 39.5 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

ON THE LAST MW DATA 1115Z, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS

STRENGTHENED DURING THE NIGHT SEEMS ALWAYS A BITE OFFSET SOUTHWARDS

OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE

NORTHERN EDGE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION.



SINCE EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST AND AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,

FUNDI SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON.



TODAY,THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE

GRADUALLY ITS MOTION.

THE NOTRH-WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR IS RELAXING TEMPORALY SLIGHTLY

DURING THE NEXT 12HOURS (DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM), AND THEN TO

INCREASE AGAIN.



MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD WITHDRAW AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY

WESTWARDS SLOWING DOWN.

TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A

NEW POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI

IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.=