WTIO30 FMEE 081825



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  9  (FUNDI)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E

(THIRTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR

DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :44 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

48H: 2015/02/10 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/02/11 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF A RATHER STRONG NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY

VWS AND A MID LEVEL NORTH-WESTERLY DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE

CIRCULATION, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ON MSG3

IMAGERY , NORTH OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.



THIS DRY AND COOLER AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE CIRCULATION REVEALS THE

BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

COMPLETED MONDAY LATE OR TUESDAY EARLY.



AS EXPECTED, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGE

(REFER Z700 AND Z850) THAT IS REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH-EAST, FUNDI

RECURVES AND SLOWS DOWN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

ON MONDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWING DOWN GLOBALLY

WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EASTWARDS ON

TUESDAY AND FUNDI SHOULD THEREFORE RECURVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS IN A

FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON WEDNESDAY.

FUNDI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES

WEDNESDAY LATE OR TUESDAY EARLY.=