WTIO30 FMEE 241828



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/24 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 70.8 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 330 SE: 300 SW: 190 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 130







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/25 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0 AND CI=3.0

GLENDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE AND 1709Z AMSU MICROWAVE

89GHZ AND 157GHZ CHANNELS SHOW A CURVED BAND WRAPPING OVER 7 TO 8

TENS.

MENTIONED CENTRE IS ESTIMATED THANKS TO 1402Z SSMIS AND 1709Z METOP

SWATHS.



MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE

TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS

BEARING UNTIL THURSDAY LATE.

THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE

DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN

A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (5KT THANKS TO 12Z CIMSS ESTIMATION).

EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY GOOD AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW

CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD POLEWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING WESTWARD AND

NORTHWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

IN THE SAME TIME , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL

OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY

STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY.



THEN, ON FRIDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MORE RAPIDLY

FROM SATURDAY EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET, SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=