WTIO30 FMEE 250033



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/25 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 70.3 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 330 SE: 300 SW: 190 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 140







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/25 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/26 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/02/26 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/27 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/27 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/28 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/01 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/03/02 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

GLENDA'S CLOUD PATTERN KEEPS ON IMPROVING AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND

WRAPPING OVER 8 TO 9 TENS SINCE 21Z.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON ITS EAST AND ITS

SOUTH-EAST, GLENDA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED

TO KEEP THIS BEARING UNTIL THURSDAY LATE OR FRIDAY EARLY.



THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE

DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO

THE SOUTH.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN

A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (6KT THANKS TO 18Z CIMSS ESTIMATION).

EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY GOOD AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW

CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD POLEWARD WITHIN THIS WEDNESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING WESTWARD AND

NORTHWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

IN THE SAME TIME , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL

OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY

STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

FROM SATURDAY , EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=