WTIO30 FMEE 251848 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/25 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 68.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :148 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 370 SW: 430 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 72H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2015/03/02 18 UTC: 38.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=3.5- THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 1731Z ASCAT SWATH. DESPITE FAVOURABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS GREAT DIFFICULTY TO DEVELOP WITH EVEN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION AND WEAKENING DURING MOST RECENT PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT DRY AIR IN MID-LAYER HAS WRAPPED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THEREBY ISOLATING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFFECTING THE CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY THEREUPON INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. (SCENARIO GUESSED BY NUMERICAL MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY TPW ANIMATION). GLENDA HAS, AS EXPECTED, TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. GLENDA SHOULD TAKE BENEFIT OF A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AHEAD A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WATERS.THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATURDAY AND BEYOND, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC WAVE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.=