WTIO30 FMEE 260657 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/26 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 67.7 E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :148 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 170 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 120H: 2015/03/03 06 UTC: 41.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0 DESPITE GOOD UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS (FAVOURABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), DEEP CONVECTION DISPLAYS GREAT DIFFICULTY TO DEVELOP WITH EVEN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION AND WEAKENING. IT SEEMS THAT DRY AIR IN MID-LAYER HAS WRAPPED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THEREBY ISOLATING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFFECTING THE CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY THEREUPON INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. (SCENARIO GUESSED BY NUMERICAL MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY TPW ANIMATION). GLENDA HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ON FRIDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. GLENDA SHOULD TAKE BENEFIT OF A VERY GOOD POLAR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER NUMERICAL MODELS GO ON SUGGESTING UNFAVOURABLE MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND SHOULD LIMITATED SIGNIFICANTLY THE EXPECTED IINTENSIFICATION. ON FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WATERS, AND BEGIN TO BE UNDER A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINTE .THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATURDAY AND BEYOND, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.=