WTIO30 FMEE 270042 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/27 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 66.9 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 560 SW: 460 NW: 330 34 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/27 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/28 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/02/28 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/03/01 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/03/01 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/03/02 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/03/03 00 UTC: 41.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 120H: 2015/03/04 00 UTC: 51.2 S / 95.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, DISSIPATING 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- CI=3.0- THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARS RAGGED AND FLUCTUATING WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. THE 18Z INTENSITY ASSESSMENT, BASED ON PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRIC DATA, IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED. THE SHEAR HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING (6 TO 13 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z). GIVEN THAT THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY SMALL. GLENDA IS TURNING SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS LATER TONIGHT UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD OF A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BY THAT TIME BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED 24-36 HOURS LATER OR SO. MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAINT-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS. IN THIS CASE, THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE (TEMPORARILY STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE).=