WTIO30 FMEE 270640



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 66.8 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 690 SW: 470 NW: 310

34 KT NE: 310 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 240







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 38.0 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/03 06 UTC: 44.6 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

120H: 2015/03/04 06 UTC: 55.1 S / 103.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

WINDS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO 0421Z

ASCAT SWATH.

MSLP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THIS BROAD EXTENSION OF

THE STRONGEST WINDS.

THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE IS NOT REALLY CONSISTENT ANYMORE WITH A DVORAK

ESTIMATION.



THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING

AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.



GLENDA IS TURNING SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEND

SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL

RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE

NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH.

ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD OF A

WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.



INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE,

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE

SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BY THAT

TIME BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

COMPLETED SUNDAY LATE.



MONDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE

SAINT-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS. IN THIS CASE, THE STRONGEST WINDS

SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE

(TEMPORARILY STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE).=