WTIO30 FMEE 271820



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 66.7 E

(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 690 SW: 470 NW: 310

34 KT NE: 310 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 240







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 38.2 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/03/02 18 UTC: 41.2 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/03 18 UTC: 46.9 S / 90.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

THE LAST ASCAT SWATH OVER THE CIRCULATION SHOW A BROAD EXTENSION OF

THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND.

THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE IS NOT REALLY CONSISTENT ANYMORE WITH A DVORAK

ESTIMATION.



THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING

AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.



GLENDA IS TURNING SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEND

SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL

RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE

NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH.



INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE,

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE

SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BY THAT

TIME BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

COMPLETED SUNDAY LATE.

ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD OF A

WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.



MONDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE

SAINT-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS. IN THIS CASE, THE STRONGEST WINDS

SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE

(TEMPORARILY STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE).=