WTIO30 FMEE 280038



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 67.2 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 390 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 220







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/28 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2015/03/01 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/03/01 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/03/02 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/03/02 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/03/03 00 UTC: 44.0 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/04 00 UTC: 49.4 S / 94.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

THE LAST ASCAT SWATH OF 1740 OVER THE CIRCULATION SHOW A BROAD

EXTENSION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM

WIND. THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE IS NOT REALLY CONSISTENT ANYMORE WITH A

DVORAK ESTIMATION.



THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED (20 KT ACCORDING CIMSS

DATA 18Z) SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE.



GLENDA IS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES

OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO

THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS

SOUTH.



INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE,

SYSTEM IS GOING TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE

SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BY THAT TIME BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED SUNDAY

LATE.



ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD OF A

WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.



MONDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE

SAINT-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS. IN THIS CASE, THE STRONGEST WINDS

SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE

(TEMPORARILY STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE).=