WTIO30 FMEE 100033



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/12/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  12  (HALIBA)



2.A POSITION 2015/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 55.9 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE

DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW: 70

34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

72H: 2015/03/13 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/14 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

120H: 2015/03/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=2.5+.



THE LAST ASCAT DATA 1735Z SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CERCLE.

DEEP  CONVECTION HAS REBUILD DURING THE NIGHT NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT

THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES ALWAYS A MODERATE THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY.



THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS

WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO

MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.



TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME

SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND

FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS  ON WEDNESDAY.



THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH THE

END OF  EXTRATROP PROCESS.



GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF

THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=