WTIO30 FMEE 060034



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/14/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  14  (IKOLA)



2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 88.6 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 91.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 92.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 94.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 96.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 96.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW

120H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 92.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=3.5-



LATS MICRO-WVAES (DMSP-F15 AT 2106Z) SHOW A CLOSED EYE IN LOW LEVEL,

AND SUGGEST A BUILDING WARM CORE NON YET VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL

IMAGERY.



NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY: THE SYSTEM IS

LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF 20S. THIS

WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT

FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE

SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK

IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.



 THERE IS SOME GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS

SCENARIO, BUT THEN, UP TO WEDNESDAY, SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE

FORECAT AND ALSO THE DETERMINISTE OF CEP SUGGEST THAT ONCE SHEARED,

THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL

HIGHS. IT IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY.



IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER

LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO

THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR

TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE

FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST).



GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E

AT THE END OF MONDAY.=